ROLE OF CONNECTIVITY AND CLUSTERS IN SPATIAL CYCLIC SIRS EPIDEMIC DYNAMICS

Ken A. Hawick

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Keywords

Population health modelling; SIRS cyclic model; agentbased model.

Abstract

Understanding infection propagation and sustainability behaviours of epidemics in spatially distributed populations remain difficult problems. We use an agent-based simulation to explore the roles of geometrical agent connectivity and component clusters in the Susceptible, Infected, Recovered; Susceptible cyclic SIRS model. We study the distribution of sizes of infected clusters on simple nearest neighbour connected systems as well as other connectivity geometries including a Moore neighbourhood and a radial proximity connectivity. We find that both recovery probability and neighbourhood connectivity size affect and shift the infection probability trends and lead to increased sustainability of a system wide epidemic. We discuss the implications for managing the health of large spatial populations, the statistics of large scale epidemics and the effect of more realistic system geometries.

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