B. Calvo and F. Savi (Italy)
Non structural flood mitigation measures, inundation of urban areas, flood forecasting.
The aim of present work is to investigate the real applicability of real time model of flood forecasting in Tiber river in Rome in order to assess if the lead time is compatible with civil protection actions. Three different models were applied: a simple regression model based on the results obtained by means of a Monte Carlo analysis; a linear model; a quasi-physically based model performing rainfall-runoff analysis. These models were applied to forecast historical floods. It is confirmed that the regression and the linear regression models seem more appropriate for flood forecasting in Rome. Finally, by applying the regression model, the optimal threshold discharges for warnings systems are identified by means of a Bayesian decisional model.
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