Ken A. Hawick
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Population health modelling; SIRS cyclic model; agent-based model.
Understanding infection propagation and sustain- ability behaviours of epidemics in spatially distributed pop- ulations remain difficult problems. We use an agent-based simulation to explore the roles of geometrical agent con- nectivity and component clusters in the Susceptible, In- fected, Recovered; Susceptible cyclic SIRS model. We study the distribution of sizes of infected clusters on simple nearest neighbour connected systems as well as other con- nectivity geometries including a Moore neighbourhood and a radial proximity connectivity. We find that both recovery probability and neighbourhood connectivity size affect and shift the infection probability trends and lead to increased sustainability of a system wide epidemic. We discuss the implications for managing the health of large spatial popu- lations, the statistics of large scale epidemics and the effect of more realistic system geometries.
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