Modelling Earthquake Risk Based On Approximate Nonlinear Reliability Estimates

J.W. van de Lindt


Bilinear oscillator, earthquake risk, structural reliability, powerspectral density, Rayleigh distribution


This study examines the reliability of a bilinear hysteretic oscillator as a means to model the seismic risk of a structure. Many seismic risk analyses have been performed using linear SDOF oscilators. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate that the use of a more complex oscillator model in seismic risk analyses not only alters the structural response, but signi´Čücantly changes the perceived number of time domain simulations that are thought to be representative of earthquake dangers in the area. The present study compares the results of a spatial seismic risk analysis, based on the probability of a bilinear hysteretic oscillator exceeding a prescribed displacement level, to an analysis using a linear oscillator at the same site. The results of the analyses are presented spatially, that is, as a function of earthquake magnitude and site-to-source distance, and in terms of a Cumulative Earthquake Risk Function (CERF).

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