Estimating the Cost of a Proposed Change to Canadian Armed Forces Promotion Policy

Michelle C. Straver, Sonia A. Latchman, and Neil Tabbenor


Operations Research, Policy Issues, Forecasting, Workforce Modelling


Under current Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) policy, personnel at the rank of Private (Pte) are typically promoted to the rank of Corporal (Cpl) after 4 years of service (YOS). A proposed policy, if implemented, will have this requirement reduced to 3 YOS. This research was undertaken to estimate the cost of the proposed policy change. Using historical data, a workforce modelling approach was taken to forecast the population for the next 10 Fiscal Years (FYs) under the two different policies. The cost of the policy change was then calculated based on the difference in the numbers of personnel at each rank. Several factors were considered, including the current population, population promotion and attrition rates, and future recruiting numbers. The cost of the policy change was estimated at $22.1M for FY 13/14, and averaged $13.4M between FYs 14/15 and 21/22. The long-term annual cost was estimated at $15.3M.

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