Time-Series Modeling of the Demand for Energy Efficient Residential Appliances

Kenneth H. Tiedemann


statistical modelling, parameter identification, residential appliances, energy savings


In the face of growing evidence that burning fossil fuels is leading to increased levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the oceans, many North American jurisdictions have undertaken measures to reduce emissions due to electricity production. In British Columbia, BC Hydro has aggressively promoted energy efficient Energy star qualifying household appliances. Using quarterly data on appliance shipments by efficiency level, ordinary least squares and maximum likelihood models of the determinants of Energy Star appliance shipments are used to estimate the impact of BC Hydro’s energy efficient appliance program on appliance shipments. Engineering algorithms are used to estimate the program impact on energy use. This study has three main conclusions. First, an increase in housing starts substantially increases the sales of Energy Star qualifying refrigerators, clothes washers and dishwashers. Second, by 2009 additional BC Hydro activities to promote Energy Star appliances increased annual sales of Energy Star refrigerators by 39,000 units per year, annual sales of Energy Star clothes washers by 51,000 units per year, and annual sales of Energy Star dishwashers by 38,000 units per year. Third, by 2009 the first year reductions in energy consumption for Energy Star refrigerators were 4.0 GWh per year, for Energy Star clothes washers were 14.8 GWh per year, and for Energy Star clothes washers were 2.8 GWh per year.

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