Estimation and Minimization of Shocks Influence on National Economy Evolution based on a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

Abdykappar A. Ashimov, Yuriy V. Borovskiy, Rakhman A. Alshanov, Bakhyt T. Sultanov, and Mukhit A. Onalbekov


Stochastic models, Forecasting, Parameter estimation, Bio-PEPA


The parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE model) proposed by F. Smets and R. Wouters were estimated using the statistical data of the Republic of Kazakhstan economy. The shocks influence on indicators of evolution of national economy was evaluated. The problem of minimization of shocks influence on dispersions of economic indicators was formulated and solved on the basis of linear approximation of considered DSGE model.

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