Ron Herman, Charles T. Gaunt, and Milton Edimu
Risk analysis, Reliability, Geomagnetically induced currents, Power system operation, Customer interruption costs, Transformer failures
An investigation of the threat to the reliability of transmission networks in South Africa was precipitated by concerns over cyclical phenomena. The relevance of South African and global research on the effects of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and transmission grid reliability is reviewed. An approach to assessing reliability with particular reference to time-based incidents, including both GICs and weather related incidents, is described. Mitigation options for the effects of geomagnetic storms that cause GICs can be compared using a probabilistic reliability analysis and costing process. The results are presented as probability-weighted financial risk to assist the decision making for both planning and operations. The paper concludes with a discussion of further work and the relevance to other countries.
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