D. Niu, L. Duan, and H. Lv (PRC)
peak load, gray relation analysis, combination forecasting, optimal weighted method
In recent years, the peak load of East China Grid grows rapidly, which has reached to 130112 MW in 2008.With the great growth of peak load, a range of issues highlights. In the paper, combination forecasting mode is applied to predict East China Grid power system yearly peak load. To improve the precision of forecasting, we use gray relation analysis to select the more suitable ones among model library. For yearly peak load forecasting, an optimal weighted combination method based on selected models is adopted in the paper. Combination method can make use of the advantages of single models. Compared with other methods, the proposed method proves more efficient in predicted accuracy. With a true case study using actual data of East China Grid, the peak load of the next 4 years are forecasted, which provides the basis for planning and decision making.
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