Mining Sustainability Indicators to Predict Optimal Hydrocarbon Exploration Rate

M. Shaheen, M. Shahbaz, Z. ur Rehman (Pakistan), and A. Guergachi (Canada)


Sustainable Development, Sustainability Indicators, Energy Management, Intelligent System, Data Mining


Natural energy resources e.g. oil and gas play vital role in sustainable development of a country. The provision of reliable energy services is only possible when the energy exploration rate conforms to the consumption rate. In the world summit on sustainable development held in South Africa in the year 2002, the indicators for sustainable energy development had been agreed by international experts [2]. Sustainable development requires balanced consideration of ecology, economy and social justice [9]. The interpretation of said indicators is different for different countries depending upon the nature of development, the stability of economy, living standards of people, indigenous energy reserves etc. Careful analysis of the values stored against each indicator might propose optimal strategies for ecology, economy and sociology of the country. In this paper a methodology is proposed to find optimal energy exploration rate by mining sustainability indicators values for different countries. Initially, the cases indicating unsustainable development have been extracted and the factors causing the same are patterned. The factors which are anomalous are classified into (1). Exploration major and (2). Consumption major. Exploration major are those indicators which became anomalous because of inadequate exploration rate where as consumption major are the factors which became anomalous because of inappropriate consumption. The statistical method, correlation analysis is used to evaluate the dependence of various exploration factors on each other as well as on overall prediction about exploration rate. Multiple regression analysis is applied then to predict adequate exploration rate for sustainability management. The method can be generalized to predict the same in any set of circumstances.

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