W. Lincoln, C.R. Weisbin, R. Silberg, V. Adumitroaie, and K. Shelton (USA)
Technological forecasting, Intelligent systems, and Multi attribute optimization.
This paper discusses the process and results of technology assessment in support of the Constellation Program. A methodology for optimal technology investment is proposed with discussion of inputs including a capability hierarchy, mission’s importance weightings, and available resource profiles as a function of time, likelihoods of development success, and an objective function. A temporal optimization formulation is offered, and the investment recommendations presented along with sensitivity analyses. Key questions addressed are sensitivity of budget allocations to cost uncertainties, reduction in available budget levels, and shifting funding within constraints imposed by mission timeline. This work applies optimization methods to help answer how can decision-makers schedule technology development so that it meets mission needs while fitting optimally into a multi-year budget schedule.
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