G. Ycel and E. van Daalen (The Netherlands)
Simulation, waste management, transition, system dynamics
Attempts for understanding the mechanisms underlying transition dynamics has roots in several fields including the fields of innovation diffusion, social change and evolutionary economics. Recently, several works have come up with prospective perspectives and mechanisms to explain ongoing transition dynamics. However, inter related nature of these mechanisms, the dynamic nature of the system and its environment, and temporal behaviour of the system being the main issue of concern makes it difficult to comprehend and validate these propositions. Hence, in this paper a simulation-based approach is utilized in order to integrate some of these mechanisms and develop a better understanding about the Dutch waste management transition via exploring the temporal consequences of their interactions. The model consists of social, technological and environmental sector that covers relevant environmental issues like air and soil pollution, technological developments and changes in the decisions of different stakeholders in the social arena. The model performs well in replicating the historical trends regarding the Dutch waste management case, and provides a structured media to explore the underlying mechanisms, hence contributing to the level of comprehension. The model stands as a promising platform to conduct what-if kind of analysis for a better understanding of the studied transition.
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