H. Shaalan (USA)

Uncertainty, Interval Mathematics, Transmission Line Sag.

Uncertainty is a major issue facing electric utilities in planning and decision making. Modeling uncertainty can be based on two general approaches. The first is a probabilistic approach where probability distributions for all of the uncertainties are assumed. The second approach is called "Unknown but Bounded" in which upper and lower limits on the uncertainties are assumed without probability distributions. Interval mathematics provides a tool for the practical implementation and extension of the unknown but bounded concept. The calculation of transmission line sag is used as an example to illustrate the use of interval mathematics. The purpose of these calculations is to determine the change in cable length, given a fixed span and an interval of cable sag values, for numerous variations in temperature. The resulting change in cable length will therefore be an interval corresponding to the interval of cable sag values. This is used to illustrate the validity of interval analysis.

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