Predicting the Rolling Force in Hot Steel Rolling Mill using an Ensemble Model

Y. Frayman, B.F. Rolfe, P.D. Hodgson, and G.I. Webb (Australia)


Hot Steel Rolling, Ensemble Modeling, Regression, Stacked Generalization, Competitive combination


Accurate prediction of the roll separating force is critical to assuring the quality of the final product in steel manufacturing. This paper presents an ensemble model that addresses these concerns. A stacked generalization approach to ensemble modeling is used with two sets of the ensemble model members, the first set being learnt from the current input–output data of the hot rolling finishing mill, while another uses the available information on the previous coil in addition to the current information. Both sets of ensemble members include linear regression, multilayer perceptron, and k–nearest neighbor algorithms. A competitive selection model (multilayer perceptron) is then used to select the output from one of the ensemble members to be the final output of the ensemble model. The ensemble model created by such a stacked generalization is able to achieve extremely high accuracy in predicting the roll separation force with the average relative accuracy being within 1% of the actual measured roll force.

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