Future Vehicle Composition Structures and CO2 Emissions based on Automobile Selection Model for Consumers

T. Chikahisa, Y. Tabe, and M. Yamauchi (Japan)


Future Types of Cars, Fuel Cell, CO2 Emissions, Consumer Model, Policy and Economy 1.


Increases in CO2 emissions from vehicles is a major concern in automotive societies, and a variety of car types offering lower CO2 emissions, hybrid cars, natural gas cars, electric cars, and cars with fuel-cell, are being investigated intensively. However the level of performance and cost that must be achieved for future cars to be acceptable in the market and the percentage of cars that must be replaced for the protection of the environment is not clear. This paper investigates future market growth of low-emission vehicles and analyzes CO2 emission changes for passenger cars in Japan, England, and the United States. A consumer model for selecting vehicles, which was established in the previous report, was calibrated with statistical data from each of the countries. The results of the analysis shows that England has the highest potential for reducing CO2 emissions among these countries, but that this is still insufficient to accomplish the Kyoto protocol requirements. Market shares of low emission vehicles are similar in Japan and England, and hybrid cars appear to be able to reach a substantial shares in 10 years, while the share of fuel cell powered cars will be very small. The critical cost for fuel cell powered cars to gain a 10% share in 2015 is shown for the three countries.

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