J.-J. Horng, C.-H. Chang, R.-F. Lee, and K.Y. Liao (Taiwan)
greenhouse gases, system dynamic model, agriculture, solid wastes
Methane, one of major greenhouse gases, emitted from agricultural and solid waste sectors of Taiwan. Based on influencing factors of methane emission from past monitoring researches, this study developed system dynamic models of agriculture and solid wastes sectors by Stella. With the basic scenario of emission at 2000, the model predicted 24% methane emission could be reduced by stopping the first seasons and 75% reduction for the second seasons. These results could be adopted for future strategically planning of paddy field and water management. Other sub-sectors, such as vegetables and animal farms, were needed for completing the agricultural model. The waste model was developed from the current “Zero Waste” policy of Environmental Protection Administration. The model estimated that the reduction goals were impossible after 2011 with the social economic factor increment of 3% after 2001. As the gross national products (GNP) and economic growth slow, the growth of solid wastes would reduce as well as the reduction of CO2, CH4 and N2O emission. If the landfill ratios were reduced after 2002, those 2 and 6% decreases would yield the emission of CH4 of 180 and 200 Gg (109 ) at 2013, comparing to 4% and 200 Gg.
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