G. Koniak and I. Noy-Meir (Israel)
Simulation, state transitions, ecosystem services,Mediterranean ecosystems.
Land management decisions in natural and semi-natural ecosystems affect changes in vegetation, which in turn result in changes in the multiple benefits that can be obtained from the land. A conceptual model of these relationships is presented. It is being developed into mathematical models by coupling a scale-hierarchical non-linear model of vegetation processes, embedded in a state transition framework, with a linear model for calculating potential benefits from vegetation state at the site scale. The model is implemented and parametrized for a study area in Mediterranean woody vegetation in Israel. A sample simulation experiment demonstrates the dynamics of vegetation state and benefit levels under different management scenarios. The model can be a useful guide to rational management. However, the quest for optimal management of bio-socio-economic systems is hampered by the lack of a common currency for benefits of different classes.
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