J. Boland and L. Magnano (Australia)
Applied simulation in the energy sector, Energy demand modelling, Fourier series, ARIMA.
This paper reports a model to describe half hourly electric ity demand during working days to use as input in simu lation software and eventually for forecasting. Since the intra-day pattern differs according to the season, four dif ferent models were constructed. Similar procedures were conducted for each season. The daily cycles were de scribed using Fourier series. In order to explain the as sociation between demand and current temperature, linear and quadratic models were implemented. The relationships with past temperature and demand of the two previous days were analysed applying multiple regression models. Fi nally ARIMA models were used to explain the noise be haviour. The models describe satisfactorily the behaviour of the electricity demand. The average error of prediction one step ahead is lower than 1.6% for all the seasons.
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