Modeling Lightning caused Transmission Line Outages in Alberta

M. Wu, S.S.P. Shen, and D.O. Koval (Canada)


transmission line, outages, lightning, spatial, temporal.


: Lightning is one of the major adverse weather conditions that can cause frequent transmission line outages in some geographical areas. The characteristics of lightning and the relationship between lighting and transmission line outages is still not fully understood by utility planners. This paper will reveal the spatial and temporal patterns of lightning in Alberta. The study of geographical and temporal characteristics of lightning caused transmission line outages for several voltage levels transmission lines are presented. The lasso regression variable selection procedure and Cp criterion are applied to model the duration of the lightning caused transmission lines outage as a function of weather and lightning elements such as daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily maximum precipitation, hourly maximum wind speed, maximum overall lightning amplitude and maximum positive lightning amplitude etc. The duration of lightning caused transmission line-related outages can be predicted by the resulting functions. The methodology presented in this paper can be applied to any transmission line system operating in a unique geographical environmental area.

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