Modelling Earthquake Risk Based On Approximate Nonlinear Reliability Estimates

J.W. van de Lindt

Keywords

Bilinear oscillator, earthquake risk, structural reliability, powerspectral density, Rayleigh distribution

Abstract

This study examines the reliability of a bilinear hysteretic oscillator as a means to model the seismic risk of a structure. Many seismic risk analyses have been performed using linear SDOF oscilators. The objective of the present work is to demonstrate that the use of a more complex oscillator model in seismic risk analyses not only alters the structural response, but signi´Čücantly changes the perceived number of time domain simulations that are thought to be representative of earthquake dangers in the area. The present study compares the results of a spatial seismic risk analysis, based on the probability of a bilinear hysteretic oscillator exceeding a prescribed displacement level, to an analysis using a linear oscillator at the same site. The results of the analyses are presented spatially, that is, as a function of earthquake magnitude and site-to-source distance, and in terms of a Cumulative Earthquake Risk Function (CERF).

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