Q. Ahsan and M.A. Jalil
Hourly load, load forecasting, load duration curve, long-term generation expansion plan
An electric utility should plan its system well ahead of time to meet future customer demand. It is essential to an appropriate long-term generation expansion plan, with a usual duration of 20 to 25 years, that the forecasted load be close to the demand that will occur at each moment of the planning period. The authors present a methodology to forecast the hourly load or load for smaller interval of time for long-term generation expansion planning. The methodology is based on the relation between the forecasted annual/seasonal peak load and the probability density functions (PDFs) of different load ratios. The article validates the proposed methodology by applying it to the power system of Bangladesh Power Development Board.
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