X. Sun, Z. Ren, Y.-J. Chen, and Z.-Y. Li (PRC)
Reliability evaluation, generating system, well-being indices, contingency enumeration (CE) approach, conditional probability (CP)
Probabilities of healthy, marginal and at risk of a system are collectively known as well-being indices, they are more useful for system operators in that these indices contains more deterministic information than conventional loss of load probability. Traditional method, which can be used to calculate well-being indices is contingency enumeration method, this method, however, can become very time consuming and cumbersome when applied to a system with many generating units, especially for a system with an irregular load shape. This paper presents a probability method designated as `CP method' to calculate well-being indices of a generating system by taking advantage of conditional probability. This proposed method has more functionality that it can easily dispose of a system with many generating units or with an irregular load shape. Therefore, it is applicable to large generating system reliability analysis, and is guidable for system operators to make decision on line.
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