Simulation and Forecasting Complex Economic Time Series using Neural Network Models and Fuzzy Logic

P. Melin, O. Castillo, A. Mancilla, and M. Lopez (Mexico)


Time Series, Neural Networks, Modelling, Simulation


We describe in this paper the application of several neural network architectures to the problem of simulating and predicting the dynamic behavior of complex economic time series. We use several neural network models and training algorithms to compare the results and decide at the end, which one is best for this application. We also compare the simulation results with the traditional approach of using a statistical model. In this case, we use real time series of prices of consumer goods to test our models. Real prices of tomato and green onion in the U.S. show complex fluctuations in time and are very complicated to predict with traditional statistical approaches.

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