C. Jiang and C. Wang (PRC)
Chaos, load forecasting, incidence-degree
Electric load series always presents complex chaos phenomenon with higher embedded dimension because of the influence of many complicated facts. This paper proposed a new forecasting method to deal with chaotic load series with higher embedded dimension, the new method apply incidence-degree to determine the nearest points in state space. In the mean time, the method is developed to improve the precision of load forecasting by using incidence-degree weight factors. The test result of short-term load forecasting series shows that the precision of load forecasting is greatly improved by means of the new method when the embedded dimension is high, compared with the method used recently.
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