Calculating Forensic Inference from VNTR Fingerprints using 2-Stage EM Algorithm

J.A. Roach and S. Mahdi (Barbados)


EM, SEM, VNTR Locus, 2-Stage Mixture


We implement the inference method by Devlin, Risch and Roeder ([1]) using a stochastic variant of the EM algorithm (SEM) and a simulated allele support. We use some hypothetical VNTR systems as well as some summarized results from real systems in [1] to calculate inferences from simulated VNTR data. We compare a proposed approach, for calculating the identity index when several VNTR loci are tested, with the conventional approach of the product rule. The conventional approach is based on the assumption of independent of alleles both within and across VNTR loci. This general approach allows for the dependence of alleles and is based on a concept of a 2-stage mixture that applies to the EM and SEM algorithms. We hope to show improved inferences via this approach.

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