W. Guo (PRC)
Mechanism, Earth Environment, Force, Nature factor, Economic factor
In the twenty first century, earth's temperature will rise 0.8 to 4.8C than 1990' , with no CO2 emissions control. The rate is 6-40 times of temperature change in glacial to interglacial. The direct effect of aerosol produced by land use is caused by the absorption and scattering of solar radiation. The cooling effect of aerosol has been estimated by climate models to be -1 to -4.4 Wm-2 in the global mean. Such results might indicate that human activity may be altering clouds and natural precipitation on a global scale. Deforestation could decrease precipitation and increase the length of the dry season via the mechanisms between climate and ecosystem. All of these, without fail, the areal development in economy is at the bottom of. The average of global agricultural land base in 2050 will be 18% larger than at present. Economic policy of countries over the world is the most active factor for environmental change coming 100 years.
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