D. Nikolov (Bulgaria)
Forecasting, Electrical load, Random process, Power system, Regimes planning
The consumption of active power in the main nodes of the electrical power system (EPS) is forecasted on the base of the retrospective information about this power for a given period of time. The mathematical model for the forecast of the loads in the nodes takes into account the seasonal trend, the week, the 24 hour regularity and the casual fluctuations based on the factor weather. The fact that it was taken into account in the model the auto correlation function of the load in the node and also the mutual correlation functions among the active loads in the different nodes of the EPS considerably improves the accuracy of the short-term forecast.
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