K. Shoichi (Japan)
A constrained genetic algorithm, dynamic CGE model,
agricultural policy analysis, sustainable watershed
management, and water quality
Regional economic development and environmental
sustainability will be an inevitable subject regardless of
regional scale. This paper intends to develop an effective
model to address this subject in the watershed scale.
Considering regional demographic movement and policy
variable as subsidy, a watershed dynamic CGE model is
formulated coupling with a COD emission model based
on input-output tables. In the computation of proposed
model, a constrained genetic algorithm, αGA, is adopted
and its applicability is verified. For a practical watershed
management in Japan, we investigate how an agricultural
subsidy policy, which will be expected to improve
cultivation abandonment and reduce non-point source
discharge from paddy field, influences on the watershed
economic growth and water quality for a long time period.
Especially, we discuss the impact of a strong COD
emission control, whose rate exceeds population reduction
rate, on the watershed economic growth from aspects of
some agricultural subsidy policy and a regional self
sufficient ability in goods production.